10 Reasons Why There Will Be No Civil War 2.0

A new movie I might see is “Civil War.” Texas, Florida and California supposedly secede together and fight the rest of the ex-USA. Most people are thinking, No way nutty California would join with sensible Florida and Texas. But that’s just the moviemakers gaining free publicity.

The fact is the country isn’t going to split and fight Civil War 2.0. It’s simple: America no longer is held together by Lincoln’s “mystic chords of memory,” but by the welfare state. Half of people get government checks and won’t want them to stop. At any sign of a breakup, they’ll vote for politicians who will do whatever is necessary to keep the checks flowing. Here are 10 main reasons:

1. Social Security. Back decades ago I used to write many editorials calling for the privatization of Socialist Security, which the editors always corrected by removing the ist. Nothing ever happened. Nothing ever will happen.

About 50% of voters are age 50 or over. So they’re either already getting SS, or looking forward to it. Republicans now and then, being the Stupid Party, advance a reform such as those I recommended to “save Social Security.” Democrats then attack them for “attacking seniors,” and the whole thing is dropped.

SS can’t be “saved,” but its demise can be postponed. For example, we could close all those military bases around the world and cut military spending in half, saving $500 billion a year.

2. Medicare. If the country split, there would be no Medicare. Seniors like me wouldn’t get our pills. Many would die within weeks. Some would find out their doctors overprescribed. But all sorts of operations and other procedures would be canceled. As soon as Civil War 2.0 approaches senior wanting to maintain their health care would electe politicians to prevent it by any means.

3. Veterans’ benefits. Go to a local Veterans’ Hospital and look around. A lot of old guys like me. But young guys, too. Somebody joining at 20 can get a pension at 40 and full medical and other benefits. These guys know how to use all types of weapons and organize military units. Want to deny them benefits?

One big benefit is special for the generals: Getting on the boards of the defense companies. If the country split, all that would end. They won’t let it happen.

5. Welfare. Poor people also vote. They’re not going to let expire Section 8, TANF, SNAP (food stamps), AFDC, etc. Which would happen if the country broke apart.

6. Bondholders. The country now is approaching $35 trillion in debt. Some people warn this will lead to bankruptcy. Actually, at current interest rates, it’s 3.5% of GDP. Not great, but sustainable. All the rich people, institutions, and foreign countries owning the debt are going to want to keep the interest payments coming and not lose their investments. They’ll buy enough politicians to make sure that doesn’t happen.

7. Problem-solving. Americans always have been great problem solvers. We’re not as good as we used to be. But the only time the whole country broke down was 1861-65, under very different circumstances from today.

A lot of problems have fairly easy solutions. Illegal immigrant flood? Close the borders. Abortion? Continue the post-2022 Dobbs decision situation of letting the states decide. Ukraine, Middle East conflicts? Stop intervening. National debt? Stop wasting so much money and convert that $35 trillion debt into 2% gold bonds, effectively restoring the pre-1971 gold standard.

8. 350 million guns. It might seem so many guns in the country would be an impetus to Civil War. People could form militias and start killing each other in mass quantities. But there’s an old Libertarian saying: An armed society is a polite society. If things got out of hand and the country started to break up, good people would form armed bands to stop the bad groups from committing mayhem. Imagine if the Russian populace had been heavily armed in 1917 when the murderous Bolsheviks took over.

9. Sheriffs. Except for Connecticut, all county sheriffs in America are elected. Voters will make sure to support their local sheriffs, whom they elected, in keeping order. Even in leftist California, the sheriffs are fairly conservative on law and order.

10. Everybody is mixed up. Texas is conservative, but Austin and Houston elect liberals. California is liberal, but the Inland Empire (Riverside and San Bernardino) and the Central Valley farm areas are more conservative. The country is not aligned by state boundaries as in 1861, but by ideology within each state.

In sum, there won’t be Civil War 2.0. We’re stuck with each other and will just be fighting things out as we always have. The long-run advantage, though, is with conservatives because birth rates favor those who are conservative politically and more religious. The future will be decided by those not aborted.