72 Minutes to Nuclear Armageddon

Let me scare you.

I was hoping last year’s movie “Oppenheimer” would make people more aware of the perils of Armageddon. It didn’t. We’re still closer to nuclear war than ever since the first A-bomb was exploded 79 years ago at Alamogordo.

Now there’s new book out giving the details of what a nuclear holocaust would look like, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day, week by week, month by month, year by year. It’s “Nuclear War: A Scenario,” by Annie Jacobsen, one of our best investigative journalists. She talked to hundreds of nuclear experts and top military brass, and dug out crucial declassified information no one else has reported.

She specifically does not include the politics involved. And I’ll avoid it too here. The same scenario will hold true 10 years from now when our politics and the candidates will be different.

I’m just starting the book. But she gave an interview with Lex Fridman that provides a summary in the first 30 minutes of 3 hours. Not many things have frightened me, but that did. I urge you to listen to that first 30 minutes.

Basically, the Russian and U.S. presidents launch the Apocalypse and blow up the world in 72 minutes.

I urge you now to listen to the first 30 minutes of the YouTube. Below I’ll provide some summary points. The first one is the worst.

5 Billion Corpses

·      A U.S.-Russia nuclear war would kill 5 billion people out of 8 billion.

·      In the first 72 minutes, hundreds of millions die immediately.

·      Then comes nuclear winter, when the temperature drops sharply, and billions die from starvation.

·      Richard Garwin, the nuclear weapons engineer who drew up the first H-bomb plans, told her: “All it takes is one nihilistic madman with a nuclear arsenal to start a nuclear war.”

·      It would be a 30-40-mile wide mushroom cloud sucking up the people into a “nuclear stem,” blocking out the sun.

·      The radiation comes after.

·      The common denominator in interviews with former secretaries of defense, generals, nuclear scientists, planners: nuclear war is insane.

Nuclear Forces

·      The U.S. has 1,770 nuclear weapons deployed.

·      Those weapons could launch from 60 seconds to a couple of minutes from missiles. Those on bombers might take an hour.

·      Russia has 1,674 deployed nuclear weapons, same scenario. Their weapons systems are on par with ours.

·      Total nuclear weapons among the nine nuclear-armed nations: 12,500.

·      The nine nuclear armed nations are: U.S., Russia, China, India, Pakistan, UK, France, North Korea, Israel.

Launch on Warning – Sole Presidential Authority

·      The moment an ICBM launches, U.S. satellites see the hot rocket exhaust in a fraction of a second. A second confirmation of the launch must come from a ground-radar system before “launch on warning” is initiated.

·      “Launch on Warning” means the U.S. immediately will launch a counterattack on the president’s authority. The U.S. will not wait until it absorbs a nuclear attack.

·      The U.S. president has 6 minutes to decide to launch or not. Same with the Russian president.

·      In his memoirs, President Reagan specifically called it “the 6-minute” window and said it was irrational, which it is. He said, “How can anyone make decisions on nuclear weapons based on a blip on a radar scope?”

·      “Sole presidential authority” means one man has the authority launch: the U.S. or Russian presidents, or the leaders of the other seven nuclear countries.

·      “You might think in a democracy that’s not possible. You can’t just start a war. Well you can just start a nuclear war if you’re the Commander-in-Chief, the president of the United States. In fact, you’re the only one who can do that.”

·      The reason for “sole presidential authority” is nuclear war will unfold so fast, only one person can have launch authority. The secretary of defense, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or Congress are not involved in the decision.

·      All the presidents she studied understood their responsibility in nuclear deterrence. But most presidents know little of their 6-minute authority over the nuclear weapons. “I suppose that’s understandable because how could your mind grasp it?”

·      UN Secretary General Gutierres: “We are one misunderstanding, one miscalculation away from nuclear Armageddon.”

·      Jacobsen: “No matter how nuclear war starts, it ends with everyone dead.”

·      “For the first time in decades, nuclear threats actually are coming out of the mouths of leaders. This is shocking.”

Mad Doctrine

·      It’s called “Push-Button Warfare.”

·      It’s called MAD – Mutual Assured Destruction. All the former national security advisers she talked to said it could happen. They didn’t say this never could happen.

·      Nuclear triad: Bombers, ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) and SLBMs (Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles). The bombers can be recalled, the missiles cannot be recalled or redirected.

·      Russia is threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons right now. Just using a tactical nuclear weapons is far more than just an escalation of a conventional war. “What would happen if the line is crossed is so devastating to even consider, I think that the conversation is well worth having among everyone that is in a power of position. We must come back from the brink. We are at the brink.”

·      Nuclear scientist Herb York’s papers in San Diego included the exact time, calculated by scientises, how long an ICBM would take from launch in Russia to hitting the East Coast of America: 26 minutes and 40 seconds. A launch from North Korea: 33 minutes.

·      The experts say we’re closer to this reality than ever before.

·      The answer if there’s a bright side lies in communication.

“Handmaidens of the Apocalypse.”

·      Submarines are “second-strike capacity.” The subs are as dangerous to civilization as an asteroid. They are unstoppable, unlocatable. These are hell machines.

·      Russian subs now are sneaking up within a couple hundred miles of the East Coast of the U.S. The subs are under 10 minutes from launch to strike. But some take 14 minutes to be notified to launch because deep underwater communications are more difficult. The subs are called “Handmaidens of the Apocalypse.”

·      All the U.S. missile silos can be found on Google Maps. But Russia and North Korea have Road-Mobile Launchers on trucks trundled around the countryside that can’t be located.

·      She said Americans wouldn’t like the missiles driving around their neighborhoods. But if we did that, people would be aware of what’s really at stake.

·      America’s secret weapons development at DARPA is ahead of Russia and China.

Nuclear Football

·      The “nuclear football” is a satchel with the nuclear codes and always is with the president and vice president. The PEAD, Presidential Emergency Action Directives, never have been leaked.

·      If a crisis erupts and the president considers launching the missiles, options are given to him. The options for weapons and targets are on laminated plastic, “like a Denny’s menu.” My comment: That gives a whole new meaning to the Grand Slam special.

·      While the president is deciding during a nuclear crisis, a weather officer tells him how many millions of people will die in minutes, hours, days, weeks, months and years – depending on the weather.

·      Can the missiles be stopped? Basically, no. There are 44 U.S. interceptor missiles. Success rate: 50%. 40 of them in Alaska. 4 at Vandenberg AFB in California. A system called THAAD is all deployed in other countries. The Aegis system is deployed on ships at sea.

I’ve kept this post non-political but will reference it in future writings.