After their recent holiday in Kiyv, SecDef Lloyd Austin and SecState Anthony Blinken actually told us the real reason for the war. And it isn’t to promote independence, freedom, democracy and liberty in Ukraine. The Ukrainians, dying by the tens of thousands, are just pawns in their game. So are the Russian troops also being slaughtered.
Austin said in Poland at a press conference: “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree it cannot do the kind things that it has done in invading Ukraine. It has already lost a lot of military capability and a lot of its troops, quite frankly, and we want to see them not have the capability to very quickly reproduce that capability.”
Actually, the Russian military is learning a lot about fighting a war in Eastern Europe, including countering US/NATO weapons and tactics. Just as the US/NATO are learning how to fight Russian weapons and tactics. We don’t know what Russian losses are yet, but at the end they will be perhaps 20,000 KIA, terrible but not catastrophic. The surviving troops will return home to Mother Russia as heroes, the girls will love them, and they well could have a baby boom, something common to victors, as with the US 1946-64.
Biden in his State of the State also guaranteed the “ruble is rubble.” Except, after dropping fast, it quickly recovered, and now is worth more against the dollar than before the invasion. Russia also is linking up with China more than before. The Russian economy is in a recession, but one expected to last no more than two years. But the US also is headed into recession, and Europe into an even greater one.
Here’s Blinken at the same press conference: “When it comes to Russia’s war aims, Russia is failing. Ukraine is succeeding. Russia has sought as its principal aim to totally subjugate Ukraine, to take away its sovereignty, to take away its independence. That has failed.”
Russia, as has been repeated many times before and after the war, mainly wants two things: No NATO membership for Ukraine and the protection of the Russian ethnics in the Donbas. It is going to achieve both. It also looks like it is going to conquer and permanently occupy southwest Russia — called Novarossia, or New Russia — because it can, and because US/NATO wouldn’t compromise.
It also is silly to think a country wielding 6,000 nuclear weapons can be degraded militarily. Russia’s arms factories are operating full steam to resupply their forces. And they’re being forced to find new parts suppliers in China, meaning any parts shortages they are suffering will not occur in the future.
Again, let me stress I hate this war and belive Putin should not have invaded, but should have waited to negotiate with a better US president. But I wasn’t consulted. So I’m just trying to objectively describe what I see happening.
Scott Ritter, Col. Macgregor and other analysts continue to say Russia is arranging its forces in Eastern Ukraine to destroy about 40,000 Ukrainian troops, the main remaining force force for that country. Once those forces are defeated, Russia will turn to Novarossia. After that, it will surrount Kiyv. Then it won’t have to take the city, but can dictate terms. A Rump Ukraine will remain, neutralized, de-NATOized, de-Nazified (Azov Battallion will be gone) and shorn of its coast on the Black Sea, which reportedly has a lot of energy riches.
Ironically, a Rump Ukraine will be a higher percentage Ukrainian that the pre-Feb. 24 Ukraine. Maybe then it can rebuild as a real nation apart from being the sacrificial lamb for the demented geostrategic foolishness of Blinken, Austin and Biden.