California Dreamin’ for 2022
(My Epoch Times column)
(Please email to friends and everyone…)
The year 2022 will be critical for California. Some possibilities:
The state budget. Early in January, Gov. Gavin Newsom will release his proposed budget for fiscal year 2022-23, which begins on July 1. Because governments run on money, the governor’s numbers will set the stage in 2022 for all discussions in all areas of state and local government.
The proposal will contain economic assumptions. There have been times—the late 1990s and mid-2000s most recently—where governors were too optimistic on revenue projections, which dried up in the heat of recessions. But beginning with Gov. Jerry Brown a decade ago, even good times have been downplayed in these budget numbers. Which makes sense. Better to expect less money than you might get than spend more than you might have.
Still, these are good times. The thing to look for is whether Newsom expects a possible recession in 2023, the second half of the budget. Chapman University’s forecast is anticipating that problem, which could end the recent surpluses real fast—and even turn them into deficits.
Ending COVID-19. Will the Omicron Variant turn out to be the concluding chapter of the pandemic, turning the virus into a version of the common cold? Or will there be new, more deadly variants? We should know by spring. But people do seem to be ready to move beyond the masks, lockdowns and even the vaccinations, including in California.
Much of this depends, as usual, more on politics than the “Science”—capital S. I suspect Democrats, eager for some good news heading toward the November elections, will want to proclaim Victory Over COVID. That was supposed to happen last July 4, but didn’t. This July 4 seems to be a good time to celebrate Independence from COVID Day.
Taming inflation. Inflation hits Californians harder because this state is already ludicrously expensive. But there may be good news. After rising above $2,000 an ounce in mid-2020, the price of gold has held steady throughout 2021 at about $1,800 an ounce. That’s an indication the recent inflation spikes should be under control in 2022. The massive infusions of money from the “recovery” programs and Federal Reserve printing appear to be over.
Sen. Joe Manchin, D-WV, has been thwarting the wildest spending on the so-called Build Back Better bill, with a compromise likely next year. Despite criticisms from The Squad and other left-wing Democrats, his actions have prevented much worse inflation, which hits the poor and middle-class the hardest, especially in California. Supply problems are also being ironed out.
Will California turn from one-party rule? An early indication of whether Republicans are ready for prime time again in this state will be the June 7 primary election. Due to the Top Two system, four years ago no Republican made the cut during the primary for U.S. Senator, lieutenant governor, and the non-partisan (supposedly) superintendent of public instruction. If Republicans avoid that fate, and advance candidates for all positions in November, they will have put themselves back in the ballgame.
A lot of this has to do with financing. If Democrats don’t have to spend to defeat Republican candidates for these positions, they can shift that money to other races or initiatives. But the state desperately needs competition on the ballot. One-party states don’t fare well.
THE REST HERE:
https://www.theepochtimes.com/california-dreamin-for-2022_4186636.html