Election 2024: Trump, Biden, Ukraine, Insane

Labor Day Weekend kicked off the 2024 presidential season. In “Modern Times,” his history of the 20^th Century, Paul Johnson noted 1916 was the first U.S. presidential election the world noticed closely. Europe was aflame in World War I. President Wilson barely won re-election on the platform, “He kept us out of war.” It was one of the biggest lies ever told. After winning, he quickly maneuvered Congress into declaring war on Germany.

Foreigners certainly are paying attention to our new election. Especially because of the Ukraine War. Three of the top candidates seeking to replace Biden oppose the war: Trump, Kennedy and Ramaswamy. In Fleming Foundation seven years ago, I bluntly said there was no way Russia could have influenced the election. I refuted what now is called the Russia Hoax; and which the Durham Reported tied directly to Hillary and the FBI.

My reasoning then was the American election was too complicated for foreigners to figure out. This time may be different. Russia, China and other powers may gin up the new Artificial Intelligence technologies to influence American voters. Maybe not. We’ll never now.

But the main effect of the Ukraine War on the election is internally in the Biden administration. As the Afghan withdrawal debacle two years ago also showed, these people are bad at running wars. But they definitely know how to run elections. And they know wars going bad hurt the side running the war. The eldest among them will remember the Vietnam fiasco. But everybody remembers how the souring of Bush’s Iraq War led to the Democrats and lovely Nancy Pelosi taking over Congress in 2006. And in 2008, they grabbed the presidency, as voters preferred supposed peacenik Obama to John “Insane” McCain.

It's impossible to predict how this war will turn out. But a possible scenario was painted by the Voice of Reason on the Military and Foreign Affairs Network’s YouTube channel. VOR is an anonymous former U.S. Army tank officer. He sure knows his stuff. I’ve been listening to him since the war started. His brief daily videos, usually 15 minutes or less, are the best briefing on the war’s progression.

His latest offering is, “Battlefield Ukraine Russian Plan for Total Victory.” 8 minutes. The main takeaway is Russia seems to be planning for a three-year war, meaning it would last another year and a half. At some point, they will switch from the current defensive posture, after having greatly reduced Ukraine’s manpower and dwindling US/NATO armaments, and go on the offensive. Russia, not anybody else, will decide how far they will go. They are building up a huge force of up to 2 million men, while their factories are running 24/7 churning out mass quantities of tanks, artillery, ammo, planes, choppers and missiles.

And in the background, of course, is…

My own addition is this: Both sides – Putin and Biden (or whoever’s in charge) – are looking at the election schedule; at the Russian buildup; at the weaker US/NATO buildup for a potential direct intervention (won’t that be fun); and at the calendar, because offensives only occur in the late winter, when the ground is frozen, or in late spring and summer (like the ongoing Ukrainian offensive), when the ground is dry.

They key date is Nov. 5, 2024, the U.S. general election. Would the Russians attack before then, to ruin it for the Democrats? Or would that let Democrats rally Americans to the war? But, having been fooled by Bush into backing the Iraq and Afghan wars, would Americans this time shout, echoing the hippy peaceniks now warniks running the Biden regime, “Hell no, we won’t go, Joe!”

Or will Moscow wait until after the election, hoping a peace candidate wins?

Meanwhile, next June 9 our vassal state of Germany is holding elections for the European Parliament. The “extreme right-wing” AfD party (i.e., moderate conservatives opposed to the war) might win the most seats; or might be banned. The country’s economy has been dropping quickly since good ally Biden blew up the Nordstream pipeline once pumping low-cost natural gas to the kraut factories. Forbes headlined Aug. 28, “Germany’s Epic Recession Continues: Economy Still Can’t Catch A Break.”

Get your Mercedes before they turn into Yugos.