Trump Attack on Iran Would Be a Disaster

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What President Trump needs to do is get on the Hot Line with President Putin and President Xi and solve the Israel-Iran War crisis. Because it’s really the U.S.-Israel-NATO vs. Iran-Russia-China War. Maybe he already is. As I’ve been writing here for years, we’re now in the Quad Power Era: U.S., Russia, China and India rule the world.

The fourth Quad is India under President Modi. But they didn’t do too well in their recent dustup with Pakistan because their conventional military wasn’t up to snuff. They’re sort of a junior partner among the Quads until they take care of that, which they have the resources and talent to do.

The recent heavy missile attacks on Israel by Iran show U.S.-Israel anti-missile technology isn’t working well, nor is Israel’s Iron Dome. The missiles are getting through. I actually predicted that in this space last August in, “Will Harris-Biden Send Your Boys and Girls to War with Iran?” An ironic title now that it’s Trump, whom I hoped would prevent all this, might be the one who gets us directly into the war. I wrote:

The first problem is this is not the Iran that lost 1 million troops in the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, when Reagan backed Saddam in Iraq. Nor is it the Iraq of the 1990-91 Gulf War or the 2003 Iraq War.

Despite sanctions, Iran today has a strong, mid-level economy producing ample weapons, including thousands of missiles that would rain down on U.S. troops already in the region, as well as on Israel.

Thanks to the stupid Harris-Biden war with Russia over Ukraine, Iran also is getting vast technical assistance from Russia on weapons production. Early in the war, you may recall, Iran sent its drones to Russia. For some reason, Russia had lagged in drone technology. Then Moscow made up for that by upgrading Iran’s drones into Russian drones, which now are devastating Ukraine and cannot be stopped adequately by U.S. technology; while giving that better technology back to Iran.

Russia also has learned how to counter U.S./Ukrainian/Israeli military tactics on the ground and in the air. They are teaching this to Iran and China, both of which have been helping Russia and have their own observers on the field near the line of contact in Ukraine.

Why don’t people listen to me? Maybe send this to your friends. Or President Trump.

But now it’s actually worse because Russia and Iran earlier this year signed a defense pact. And the U.S. depleted even more of its stock of Patriot and other anti-missile systems in the Ukraine War. And it needs to keep U.S. stocks of Patriots full should trouble start over Taiwan, or somewhere else. When Biden provoked Russia into invading Ukraine in Feb. 2022, he mumbled about America’s “Arsenal of Democracy,” as if this were the 1940s, or 1990s.

But have you seen Detroit lately? The city where my Mom worked in a tank factory as an R.N. patching up Rosie the Riveter, while her future husband, my Pop, was fighting the war with two of her brothers? More like the Arsenal of Disaster. Trump wants to rebuild American industry with tariffs and cuts to taxes and regulations. If that’s even possible, it will take at least a decade. Meanwhile, it’s not like he can get Xi on Zoom and say, “Hey, my good friend Xi! You know those factories we transferred over there to you? I’d like to put an order for some missiles to use against your close allies Russia and Iran. You what? You already sold them to Russia and Iran? How would you like another 500% tariff?”

Do you see why the Ukraine War, which in this space I urged us to avoid even before it started, has been such a disaster? And why I also urged Trump to end it in 24 hours, as he promised, on Jan. 20 when he took office?

Another problem for Trump is a little understood paradox of wars: The last time you have control of a war is just before you start it. If you then start it, you quickly lose control. Wars take on a life of their own. If Trump attacks Iran, he might not even be able to destroy the Fordow nuclear site or overthrow the Mullah regime in Tehran.

Col. Daniel Davis had on his show Ted Poston, an actual rocked scientist from MIT, who explained how the Bunker Buster Bomb could be deflected on impact, and maybe not go deep enough to destroy Fordow. It’s worth your 12 minutes. Here’s his picture showing the missile, “K,” being pushed to the side.

There are reports the Israelis might also be prepping commandos to go to the site and blow it up. If so, why is this being talked about ahead of time, so the Iranians can take countermeasures?

Another problem is from today’s FT: “Gulf monarchies hold rival Iran close as Israel conflict rages: Saudi Arabia, UAE and other states in region fear becoming targets for retaliation if US strikes Iran.” Trump recently toured the region and said he wanted peace, not war, and signed a bunch of trade treaties. The Saudis a couple years ago also became friends again with the Iranian regime – a peace deal brokered by China.

Those countries would become targets because they house U.S. troops. As noted, we don’t have enough Patriot missiles and other defenses to prevent Iranian attacks. If Trump attacks Iran, then it will be up to Iran if it, in turn, attacks the U.S. bases throughout the area, including in Iraq, sending your sons and daughters, grandsons and granddaughters, home in body bags.