Trump Stuck in Ukraine

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Trump’s frustration with the Ukraine War boiled over in a post on TruthSocial, in which he said Putin “has gone absolutely CRAZY!” for launching hundreds of missiles and drones into Ukraine. But little noted was he also criticized Zelensky because, “Everything out of his mouth causes problems.”

Perhaps he knows now, but Trump may not have known the Russian attack came after Ukraine launched hundreds of drones into Russia, including at Moscow. And Ukrainian drones were sent on an attempted assassination of Putin when on a helicopter visit to Kursk, the Russian city recently taken back from Ukrainian forces. Putin actually is the moderate in the Kremlin. His No. 2 and likely successor, Medvedev, is much more hardline. A successful assassination attempt would have brought a massively larger Russian attack, possibly on targets in Western Europe.

Trump’s seeming problem is he has yet to realize what I said in this space more than three years ago when this mess started. There are two outcomes, only two: 1. Russia wins. 2. Nuclear war. Obviously Trump doesn’t want No. 2. So that means the only thing remaining is Russia wins. Russia now has a giant ground force, backed by artillery and an air force, more quickly marching west through Ukraine on a recently started summer offensive. It cannot be stopped.

Last year on the campaign hustings Trump said he would end the war “in 24 hours.” He could have done so on Jan. 20. He still could do so today. Just end all U.S. aid to Ukraine, including intelligence, and turn it over to the Europeans.

Newt Gingrich on Mark Helprin’s show said of Trump:

I’m sure right now for example with Putin that he’s very troubled and every model he had for how it was going to work has failed. And he is grudgingly moving toward level of toughness that will shock Putin. Because Putin is mistaking patience for timidity.

Maybe Newt should have taught logic instead of history. What he’s saying is Trump is using deductive reasoning based on “every model he had.” But this is a unique situation. There is no model. Because there are only two nuclear superpowers, Russia and the United States. Trump could send the U.S. Air Force to establish a “no fly zone” over Ukraine. But then we’re in a direct war with the other nuclear superpower.

Newt also said Trump is highly intuitive. Which is the case, and the hope. And the hope is he will finally do what I said he should do from the beginning. In logic, what Trump needs is called “abduction.” The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy describes it as, “Inference to the Best Explanation.” That’s an excellent article at the link.

It’s obvious Trump wants to get Ukraine behind him. Not only does he want the killing to stop, but he wants to make deals with Putin on nuclear arms. Russia also started a new quasi-alliance with Iran three days before Trump’s inauguration, and would be essential for a de-nuclearization deal for Iran.

And what weapons does Trump have against Russia? He could impose more sanctions. But 17 or 18 rounds – who’s counting – already have been imposed. The sanctions actually hurt Europe far more than Russia because the Euros depended on cheap foreign gas to run their economies and power their welfare states. You’ll notice they barely have increased defense spending. As always, it’s “Let’s let the Yanks do it while we party in Babylon.”

Trump may be worried exiting Ukraine will end up being a debacle like Biden’s exodus from from Afghanistan four years ago tanked his administration early. But in that case, 13 Americans were killed. In Ukraine’s case, it just means cutting off all aid. But even now, few Americans care about Ukraine, and fewer will care once we’re out. Even though in this space I write most often about Ukraine, my friends in real life almost never talk about it, as opposed to inflation, immigration, crime and, especially, the deteriorating state of California under Gov. Gavin Newsom, your next president. Well, let’s hope not!

What will Ukraine look like once Russia wins – which, to repeat, is inevitable? It’s difficult to say. But Russia’s demands for 3.5 years have been the same: No NATO membership. A new regime in Kiev, cleansed of the Banderist Nazis. Absolute neutrality, like Austria after the 1955 Austria State Treaty. At most, a small army. Recognition of Crimea as part of Russia, and at least tolerance of the four Russian-speaking oblasts in Eastern Ukraine being affiliated with Russia.

That’s the minimum, now. If the war continues, Russia also will march to the Dnepr, then take Odessa, another culturally Russian city established by Catherine the Great. It also wouldn’t surprise me if, in revenge, Putin “gave” the far western parts of Ukraine to the neighboring countries to which their people actually are part of: Lvov to Poland, and other areas to Romania and Hungary. That would divide NATO.

Remaining would be a small, rump Ukraine around Kiev. Then the real problem I’ve written about crops up: Ukraine’s birth rate is <1.0 per woman. It’s a dying country. But then, so is every country in Europe. Here’s the map.

Europe is dying, led by Ukraine. Trump needs to stop the killing by stopping all aid to Ukraine. And we ought to pull all our occupation troops out of Europe. The Europeans need to be left to themselves to create their own destiny. As we need to do as well in our own beautiful America.

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