The end of a war often is the nastiest part. Look at the Afghanistan fiasco just over two years ago. Or the helicopters lifting off from the U.S. Embassy in Saigon in 1975, followed by the exodus of the Boat People, some of them now my friends in Orange County. Or World War II ending with Dresden, Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Which is why the Ukraine War, as it enters its final phase, could get nasty. Biden largely is controlled by his handlers. But he still has the final say. What if, outraged he’s going to become the first president to lose two wars, he orders U.S. air strikes on Russian positions in Ukraine? How would Putin respond?
The worst thing to happen to you in a war is to lose control of time – The Clock. That happened to Biden/Nato/Ukraine about a year ago, as Russia built its massive defensive networks to repel the expected Ukrainian offensive, which came the next June. All Russians know how their Army did that for the Battle of Kursk in 1943, when Stalin listened to his generals and, instead of starting his own offensive, just prepared for Hitler’s final onslaught. Hitler fell for the trap, and lost the largest tank battle in history.
Less than a year later, on June 22, 1944, the third anniversary of Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union, the Red Army launched Operation Bagration, a massive offensive leading less than a year later to Hitler’s suicide and Germany’s defeat. Of course the Soviets were aided by U.S. Lend Lease weapons and supplies, especially trucks making them mobile, and the U.S.-UK-Canadian invasion of Normandy on June 6, 1944.
The point is, once you control The Clock, you can just grind down the enemy. Which is what Russia has done.
The Ukrainians now are drafting old men, boys and even girls, as the pro-war New York Times reported. What’s happening is not just the defeat of Ukraine, but its dissolution. If your young boys and girls are killed in a senseless war, then who’s left to procreate the future?
Deutsche Welle reported in October, “Even before Russia's full-scale invasion, alarmingly low birth and fertility rates have restricted Ukraine's population growth. The war has drastically exacerbated the situation, and experts have called for action.”
What action would help? Isn’t it obvious? First end the war. Then ban abortion. Then promote Christian morality. But none of that is going to happen. As we have learned, Ukraine long has been a den of corruption and vice, a place where Hunter Biden could go to get high, frolic with prostitutes and take bribes for the Big Guy.
Here’s Ukraine’s birth rate. You need 2.1 to sustain a population – more of you’re in a war.
Note how low it was around the year 2000, when the young boys who have been killed off already in Biden’s War were born. There weren’t enough of them to fight the war in the first place. It’s pretty obvious only young men can fight a war for an extended period of time. Ukraine doesn’t have many young men left.
Next, look at this chart of Ukraine’s population. Notice what happened after the 2014 putsch by the current dictatorship, which was sparked by Obama, VP Biden, Sen. John McCain, and Victorial Nuland, now the No. 2 at the State Department. After the putsch, Russia invaded Crimea because otherwise its Black Sea Fleet would have to be harbored in Vladivostok. Let’s be clear: Russia – not just Putin – will “give back” Crimea only after a nuclear war.
After the current war started on Feb. 22, 2022, Russia took over the Donbas, which includes Luhansk and Donetsk, shown as the final drop downward of the yellow line. Like Crimea, for centuries these have been primarily Russian in language and culture. They became part of Ukraine only because of stupid lines established by Soviet boss Khrushchev in 1954 when he was drunk. Why is Biden honoring a communist map?
Now clearly controlling The Clock, Putin is continuing to take his time grinding down the girls and old men now manning – or womanning – the Ukraine Army. He will decide how much of Ukraine will become part of Russia, permanently. My guess is he’ll take at least Kharkov and the rest of the area east of the Dnepr; maybe Odessa, which also is Russian in language and culture.
That would leave a rump Ukraine based around Kiev, with Western Ukraine, stolen by Stalin from Poland after the war, possibly ceded back to Warsaw. Although Lviv is the hotbed of the Banderist Nazis Hitler set up, who slaughtered tens of thousands of Russians, Jews and Poles. But who remain highly influential in Ukraine’s government, ironically run, at least for now, by Zelensky, who is Jewish. Nobody said wartime alliances ever made any sense.
A year ago kraut former Chancellor Angela Merkel let loose the 2015 Minsk II peace accords were nothing but a ruse to let the Ukrainian Army be rearmed to attack Russia. At that time, the Ukraine regime also began shelling the Donbas, which was semi-autonomous. And the Ukraine Army was being prepped to invade the Donbas. That, along with moves to include Ukraine in Nato, was what prodded Putin to launch the invasion.
That’s why there will be no Minsk III. That’s why the Russians are controlling The Clock as they see fit. That’s why Biden’s war on Russia is turning out the same as Napoleon’s and Hitler’s.
But imagine this. Probably won’t happen. But imagine it. It’s October 15 and the Russian Army is circling Kiev. Unlike in early 2022, when they had to retreat with a small army, this time they have the huge army they’ve been building since. Ukraine’s Army, whose strength and ferocity surprised everyone in 2022, hardly exists.
With the U.S. election three weeks away, Putin calls Biden and says, “Comrade Joe. We can have a peace deal, which will help you defeat Trump on Nov. 5. Or my army will march into Kiev on Nov. 1. You choose.”
Since Russia's SMO was their response to an existential threat offered by NATO, the EU, and the US blowing off their security concerns of having nuclear missiles sitting in the Ukraine, 5 minutes from Moscow, in addition the murders of thousands of Russan nationals in the Dombas by the Azov Brigades.
After the Ukraine refused to sign the Minsk agreements, the Duma had not other options.
Watch Scott Ritter's excellent video about it at youtube.com/watch?v=l6y3l9xLBRs
Very accurate take. One thing I’d also emphasize:
Russia, while having it’s own demographic issues, is still numerically far superior to Ukraine. We’re talking about a population of 35 mln (probably less now considering population movements) up against ~145 mln. I can’t recall the percentage exactly (maybe 60%), but there was an analysis that stated that once only a critical % of your able-bodied men are left, it’s a losing game for you.
Also a question. I’m curious as to whether you have any reliable sources on public perception of the war in Russia. CNN is always calling it “Putin’s War”, and my intuition tells me the underlying point they’re making there is bullshit, but that’s just my gut-feeling. On the US-Western side, I think people begin to lose interest the moment [Insert Event] is no longer the Current Thing (see meme). And currently, the Current Thing has become Israel-Palestine, which means Ukraine is becoming yesterday’s news for many people.