More tit-for-tats by Israel against Iran and Iran against Israel lie ahead. But will America be dragged into a war? It’s unlikely for a reason: Even as America’s military might has declined, and is scattered across the globe in 750 military bases, Iran, Russia and China have spent years preparing to thwart us. And the Harris-Biden Ukraine War has pushed those countries into an alliance, along with North Korea, to thwart American hegmony.
Obviously America could destroy all of Iran with nuclear weapons. And even conventional weapons could devastate much of it. But Iran still would be there, run by the Ayatollahs. To “win it” would require a land invasion.
The first problem is this is not the Iran that lost 1 million troops in the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, when Reagan backed Saddam in Iraq. Nor is it the Iraq of the 1990-91 Gulf War or the 2003 Iraq War.
Despite sanctions, Iran today has a strong, mid-level economy producing ample weapons, including thousands of missiles that would rain down on U.S. troops already in the region, as well as on Israel.
Thanks to the stupid Harris-Biden war with Russia over Ukraine, Iran also is getting vast technical assistance from Russia on weapons production. Early in the war, you may recall, Iran sent its drones to Russia. For some reason, Russia had lagged in drone technology. Then Moscow made up for that by upgrading Iran’s drones into Russian drones, which now are devastating Ukraine and cannot be stopped adequately by U.S. technology; while giving that better technology back to Iran.
Russia also has learned how to counter U.S./Ukrainian/Israeli military tactics on the ground and in the air. They are teaching this to Iran and China, both of which have been helping Russia and have their own observers on the field near the line of contact in Ukraine.
I’m sure you’ve heard the old Roman maxim: Divide et imperia: divide and conquer. The Harris-Biden maxim is: Unite your enemies and lose.
Then there’s demographics. Looking back to the two U.S. wars against Iraq and the 1980s Iran-Iraq War, here’s a graph of the populations of the two countries. Notice how Iran’s population in 2023, 88 million, is 4.4X Iraq’s 20 million in 2003. Yet in 2003, American forces had difficulty controlling Iraq even though its people had been starved for a decade and its military wiped out. Iran has been spending 34 years now preparing for a U.S. invasion.
Next, consider Iran easily could shut down all oil shipping out through the Straits of Hormuz. The Houthis, supplied by Iran with missiles, already have shut down part of it. Iran would shut it down entirely. Here’s a map of the oil routes in the Straits of Hormuz. Notice Iran’s location in the northeast.
If that happened, oil prices would soar to $200 a barrel and gas at the pump would be $30. But that wouldn’t last long. President Harris would nationalize the oil industry and ration the gallons you can pump, while advancing the Green New Deal she has supported. Your disposable income would drop 30%. If you even have a job. Are you ready for that?
Then there’s our Woke Miltary’s recruitment and retention crisis. This is amusing, from Military.com about wrestler-actor Dwayne Johnson: “The Army Bet $11M on The Rock and UFL Ginning Up Enlistments. It May Have Actually Hurt Recruiting Efforts.” Johnson never served in the military except in movie roles.
Also from Military.com: “The Army's Recruiting Problem Is Male.” The story:
The issue is convincing men to put on the uniform.
A decade of declining recruitment numbers for the Army is almost entirely attributable to a significant drop in male recruiting as female enlistments have remained relatively flat, internal service data reviewed by Military.com shows.
Since 2013, male enlistments have dropped 35%, going from 58,000 men enlisting in 2013 to 37,700 in 2023, according to the service data. Meanwhile, female recruitment has hovered around 10,000 recruits each year.
Maybe President Kamala will draft girls, urging: “It’s your turn, ladies!”
Desert Storm in 1991 required 950,000 troops from 42 countries. Of course, about 700,000 of them were American. Think that could happen again?
As to our Commander-in-Chief, Joe Biden got five deferments to avoid serving in Vietnam. Future President Kamala spent no time in the military. Neither did SecState Blinken and National Security Adviser Sullivan, the von Clausewitzes who got us into all these messes in Ukraine and the Middle East, and maybe with China and Venezuela.
Regardless of what our Fearless Leaders do, the American people have voted with their non-marching feet: Go fight your own wars.
I believe that many baby boomers simply don’t comprehend that the American military is not omnipotent and think the Reagan-era military still exists. This raises the potential for war and makes it hard for American politicians to explain the realities without looking weak.
However, I don’t think any large scale war will happen due to the logistical challenges. The Gulf War took months of preparations involving many Gulf allies. How many Arab countries are going to publicly sign up for such a war under current conditions? So any conflict will be limited to the odd air strike, assassination and missile attack.
America would have been better off if the CIA had never muddled in any Middle Eastern governments' affairs.